Call it the Pakistan paradox: The institution that gives the country international relevance—a disciplined 660,000-strong military armed with nuclear weapons—holds back the Islamic republic’s political and economic modernization.
Over the past year and a half, the army chief and Pakistan’s de facto leader, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has pulled off a high-wire act (via REUTERS)
Over the past year and a half, the army chief and Pakistan’s de facto leader, Field Marshal Asim Munir, has pulled off a high-wire act: He has raised Pakistan’s international standing even as domestic challenges have mounted. But unless Gen. Munir can revive the country’s stagnant economy and calm its restive population, his diplomatic gains will likely prove evanescent.
The most recent feather in Gen. Munir’s cap is the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, which Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey signed last week. It stipulates that an armed attack on any one of them will be regarded as an attack on all three.
What this means in practice is debatable. Will Pakistan send troops to quell Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia or intervene in the event of a Saudi-Iranian war? Don’t bet on it. Nonetheless, the Mecca pact keeps Pakistan in international headlines. It follows Pakistan’s high-profile mediation role in the U.S.-Iran conflict and a separate Saudi-Pakistani defense pact signed last year.
Even Gen. Munir’s critics must acknowledge his diplomatic dexterity. No other country has simultaneously deepened ties with the U.S., maintained a close strategic relationship with China, boosted defense cooperation with Turkey, and kept channels open to Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
“Historically Pakistan always wanted to be seen as primus inter pares”—first among equals—“in the Muslim world,” says Farzana Shaikh, an expert on Pakistan at the British think tank Chatham House, in a phone interview. “It’s getting there, largely because of how Munir is playing his cards.”
Some of those cards—such as flattering President Trump for helping end a four-day India-Pakistan conflict last year—have been played in public view. But for a prominent middle power on the global stage, Pakistan remains something of an anomaly. It lacks Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves, Turkey’s relatively developed industrial base, and South Korea’s advanced technology and soft power.
Pakistan’s principal international asset is its army. At independence in 1947, Pakistan inherited about a third of the highly trained British Indian army. For the most part, the country has maintained a degree of military cohesion uncommon in the developing world. Unlike Southern Europe, the Middle East and Latin America, Pakistan has never had a successful “colonels’ coup,” or power grab by junior officers. The army chief’s authority over his troops has remained unquestioned.
For the Saudis and Turks, Pakistan’s professional army and status as the only nuclear-armed Muslim-majority nation make it an attractive partner. Pakistan’s ability to hold its own in its skirmish with India last year also enhanced its prestige in Washington. The army’s outsize role in running Pakistan means that it’s ultimately Field Marshal Munir, not Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who has his finger on Pakistan’s nuclear button.
When Gen. Munir became army chief in 2022, many observers saw him as an underwhelming choice. He came from a modest background: His father was a schoolteacher and an imam at a local mosque. Most of Gen. Munir’s predecessors were alumni of the prestigious Pakistan Military Academy near Abbottabad. He graduated from the lesser-known Officers Training School. While many of his predecessors counted sought-after training courses in places like Fort Leavenworth, Kan., and Fort Benning, Ga., as stepping stones to the top job, Gen. Munir’s global exposure pre-2022 was confined to courses and postings in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia and Japan.
Nevertheless, he may end up being among Pakistan’s most consequential army chiefs. Parliament in 2024 changed the chief’s term from three years to five years. Taken together with other changes, including a possible extension, this could mean that Gen. Munir serves until 2035, which would make him the longest-serving chief in Pakistani history.
He has already been promoted to field marshal and chief of defense forces, a role that gives him authority over the air force and navy. Parliament has also granted Gen. Munir immunity from prosecution for life. His nemesis, the popular former prime minister Imran Khan, has languished in prison for three years.
Unfortunately for Pakistan, neither Gen. Munir’s diplomatic feats nor his consolidation of power offers solutions to the country’s domestic crises. Since June, security forces have killed at least 30 people in Pakistan-administered Kashmir who were protesting poor economic conditions and a lack of political representation, according to a civil society organization. The Islamist group Tehreek-e-Taliban, which finds sanctuary in next-door Afghanistan, has stepped up attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
Separatists in Balochistan, home to valuable resources including natural gas and copper, have countered military repression with economic sabotage and guerrilla warfare. The army has responded with brute force and a harsh clampdown on the media. “Nobody can take the risk of reporting or even writing about Balochistan,” Ms. Shaikh says.
For Gen. Munir, glowing headlines abroad may distract from growing troubles at home. But domestic realities have a way of catching up.
